An analysis from the University of Colorado that has correctly predicted the outcome of presidential elections since 1980 is forecasting Mitt Romney as the frontrunner, with voters in Colorado helping the presumptive Republican nominee unseat President Barack Obama.
Political science professors Kenneth Bickers, of CU's Boulder campus, and Michael Berry, of CU's Denver campus, found that the ailing economy spells trouble for the president's re-election bid. The professors conduct a state-by-state analysis, incorporating economic data such as unemployment figures.
The results of their analysis show that Obama will win 218 votes in the electoral college, short of the 270 that he would need to be re-elected.
While their study focuses on the electoral college, the political scientists predict Romney will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote compared to 47.1 for Obama when considering only the two major political parties.
The economy is a main driver in elections, said Bickers, who also runs the "CU in DC" internship program.
"If the economy were just average, we would be forecasting Obama to win," Bickers said. "But the economy is below average, and he is struggling."
Bickers said this election cycle has some parallels with 1980 -- a period when the economy was slumping and inflation was skyrocketing -- and voters chose Republican Ronald Reagan over Democratic incumbent President Jimmy Carter.